JANUARY 2019 Skirball Monthly Meeting ARCHIVE

Saturday, January 19, 2019

THIS IS AN ARCHIVED PRESENTATION FROM THE DATE ABOVE

TOPIC 1

Team member
MONTY GUILD
Guild Investment Management
President and Portfolio Manager
Anthony Danaher
Senior Analyst
Rudi von Abele

How to Prepare for the Meltdown Without Sacrificing Today’s Gains

Is this “the Big One?” The U.S. economy is strong, corporate earnings are growing, wages are rising, but the pundits are beating the drum of recession fear. With the withdrawal of the liquidity long provided by global central banks, volatility has returned to stock markets with a vengeance. Monty Guild, Anthony Danaher and Rudi von Abele tell you the characteristics of late-stage bull markets, and help you avoid the two major pitfalls: selling too early, or trying to hold on through a bear market decline.

You will learn…
  • How to know when a market has moved from “buy the dips” to “sell the rallies”
  • What political, economic and geopolitical news is important for markets, and what’s just noise
  • When to hold stocks, when to hold gold and when to hold cash

Monty Guild founded Guild Investment Management in 1971. Guild is a recognized expert in the areas of international investing and economics. He has been a writer and speaker on economic issues for 30-plus years and has been widely quoted in world media. Guild supervises the investment and research functions at Guild Investment Management. He holds a B.A. in economics and an MBA in finance with highest honors from California State University, Long Beach.

Anthony Danaher joined Guild Investment Management in 1990. In addition to portfolio management, he oversees client services, compliance, accounting and administration operations in the company. His long investment management experience has given him a passionate concern for generating real returns for clients in all market conditions. He has also been interviewed many times in leading business and financial media, particularly on income-generating and commodity related stocks, and has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Investor’s Business Daily and many others.

Rudi von Abele is a senior analyst at Guild Investment Management, a premier global investment firm. His research and writing for Guild’s Global Market Commentary has gained accolades from investors and journalists, and is frequently quoted in the global popular and financial media, including The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Investor’s Business Daily, Bloomberg and many others. His undergraduate studies were in psychology and economics at the University of St. Andrews, also travelling throughout western and eastern Europe.

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TOPIC 2

Team member
TOM PETRUNO
Financial Columnist

So Much Winning!

But Now What?

The U.S. economy has been firing on all cylinders, giving us the lowest unemployment rate since 1969, soaring consumer and business confidence, record corporate earnings and a long trail of stock market highs. But with the Fed continuing to hike interest rates, rising trade tensions with China and a deepening political chasm between the right and left, what will 2019 bring for the economy and the markets? Tom Petruno breaks down the potential rewards—and risks—for equities, bonds, commodities, cash and other investments as the new year dawns.

You will learn…
  • Can the U.S. economic expansion power ahead in 2019, or is recession on the horizon?
  • Is the Fed finished raising interest rates, or could the biggest surprise of 2019 be how much higher rates will go? And as rates rise, what happens to stock valuations?
  • Can corporate profits continue to grow, or will they face pressure from (at last!) rising worker wages? Could a fairer trade-off between the two be the best thing for the U.S. economy?

Tom Petruno is a financial writer and columnist. He has been chronicling the ups and downs of global markets since 1979 and was a featured columnist with the Los Angeles Times from 1990 to 2011, developing a loyal readership. Today, Petruno continues to write periodically for the Times as well as for Kiplinger’s magazine and other media outlets.  Petruno is a native of Cleveland and earned his B.A. from Ohio State University. On Twitter, he is @tpetruno.

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